Depending upon your sources, the United States is either on the brink of dictatorship or at the threshold of a golden age. Daily, even hourly, we hear another report of Elon Musk raiding a government office and usurping whatever power and authority he can find. Huge swaths of the federal bureaucracy have already been swept aside as the impotence of both chambers of Congress becomes more and more clear. Emboldened by sycophants in the Republican Party and the spinelessness of the Democrats, Donald the Great (as I imagine his regnal name will be) has initiated an assault on American federalism not seen since the Civil War. Washington, by all accounts, is adopting a kind of siege mentality where every government employee in every federal office, agency and department is fearful they will get a visit from Musk and his DOGE stormtroopers. It as if an enormous asteroid in a red MAGA hat struck the administrative heart of the nation and laid waste to the entire District.

Yet, for most of the country, the shockwave seems to have barely registered. The power grid remains intact. The national parks seem to be open. Fuel prices do not seem to have remained steady. Mobile phone networks continue to function. There are certainly examples of increased anxiety surrounding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations and there is definitely concern surrounding Elon Musk’s apparent meddling (one might even say sabotage) in various federal programs and systems. How much of this meddling is real and how much is hyperbole is, unfortunately, difficult to ascertain as government agencies have been largely muted and the administration is prone to exaggeration and speaking without thinking. Still, for many (perhaps most) Americans the figurative fires being set across Washington have so far remained theoretical threats and potential problems.

I am reminded of the months immediately after the Second Word War technically began, between the German invasion of Poland (1 September 1939) and their invasion of France (10 May 1940), a period known widely as the “Phony War” or by the fantastic German word, sitzkrieg. During this time there was only sporadic and localized combat and there was some uncertainty that an actual war would erupt. I make this observation because there is a strong possibility that the United States is in a similar lull after Trump’s initial blitzkrieg against the federal government. The attack was so sudden and so overwhelming that the effects have not yet fully manifested and we’re only seeing spotty signs of the impending catastrophe.

I also believe that the severity of the current situation depends greatly on individual anxieties and concerns, both personal and political. As I have stated in a previous meditation, the reaction for many people thinking about the Battle of D.C. is to immediately condemn it as a gross overuse of power, the political equivalent of weeding the garden with a flamethrower. This is certainly a fair, reasonable and natural response for people concerned about tens of thousands of people being ousted from their jobs. If, however, one’s primary or sole concern is reducing the federal government to a husk under the guise of ‘saving the taxpayers money’, Musk’s onslaught is not only commendable but critical. If you are of the mind that discouraging or even prohibiting DEI initiatives will tumble the country back 40 years, Trump and company are engaged in a coup. If you think those programs and policies are the reason for airplane crashes, wildfires and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the administrations war on DEI is to be applauded. We are still in a moment where the events unfolding in the nation’s capital can be mostly viewed through partisan lenses — there have yet to be any serious ramifications that have swept up people of all political camps. As a result, we continue to live in our shrinking bubble of normality.

That being said, Trump’s obsession with executive orders and Musk’s fetishization of government efficiency will, sooner or later, result in something that will impact opponents and supporters alike. At the moment it is unclear if the shared hardship will be a result of the bubbling trade wars, the effective disappearing of undocumented migrants or something else, but something will occur if the despotism continues to develop unchecked. In light of Musk’s alleged tampering with the Department of the Treasury’s payment systems, I would not be a bit surprised if the catalyst for unified opposition is a significant delay or even cancellation of 2024’s tax refunds. If you plan on running the country like a business, you had best be prepared for the backlash when you don’t pay your employees. Maybe then Congress will be more open to their constituent’s phone calls. However, by that time, it might also be too late.